TORONTO — Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI) has introduced its long-term global growth outlook for Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs.
The company expects to achieve a minimum of 40,000 restaurants, $60 billion in systemwide sales and $3.2 billion in Adjusted Operating Income by 2028 by delivering average annual results over the next five years of three-per-cent plus comparable sales, five-per-cent plus net restaurant growth and eight-per-cent plus system-wide sales growth, translating to at least eight per cent Adjusted Operating Income growth.
“We’re proud of the work our franchisees and their teams are doing to deliver quality food, excellent service and convenience to guests,” says Josh Kobza, CEO. “Our four iconic brands have strong restaurant fundamentals and clear runways for growth. Our long-term investment horizon should result in compelling business performance and drive at least low double digit annual total shareholder returns over the next five years.”
“When you add up the sum of the parts of our company, we have a pretty remarkable combination of growth drivers,” says Patrick Doyle, executive Chairman. “The outlook we’re sharing for growth is really the lowest average performance that we expect over the next five-years, with real upside potential from there.”
Tim Hortons
Tim Hortons has a strong foundation, particularly in Canada, with market share of 70-per-cent plus in hot brewed coffee, 65-per-cent plus in baked goods and 60-per-cent plus in breakfast sandwiches and wraps in 2023. Tim Hortons restaurants have a history of strong operations, driven by dedicated restaurant owners who operate roughly four restaurants on average.
Looking ahead to 2028, Tim Hortons will focus on growing the PM daypart beyond its nine-per-cent market share for 2023 through wraps, bowls, savory pastries, snacking and new product innovation. Tim Hortons is also planning significant growth in cold beverages from its 25-per-cent market share for 2023, driven initially by cold brew, real fruit quenchers, specialty beverages and innovation around its iconic Iced Capp.
Tim Hortons U.S. business is expected to be the largest contributor of net restaurant growth in its home markets, with an aspiration to reach 1,000 restaurants by 2028.
International
International growth will be driven by RBI’s strong network of well-capitalized master franchisee partners, with proven restaurant experience and commitment to growing its brands in more than 120 markets and territories.
The company sees a path towards opening at least 7,000 new restaurants in international markets over the five-year outlook period.
Burger King
The company has made a substantial financial commitment to co-invest with franchisees to accelerate modern image in the U.S. and shift the franchise system towards smaller operators who live close to their restaurants. This includes the pending acquisition of Carrols Restaurant Group and announced plan to fully modernize and then re-franchise the vast majority of its portfolio of approximately 1,000 restaurants, which is expected to be completed within five to seven years.
Looking ahead to 2028, major growth drivers in the business include accelerating to get 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the system to modern image, driving incremental sales through re-models and effective marketing, executing the Carrols re-imaging and re-franchising plan, and improving guest experience through training and operational excellence at the restaurant.
Popeyes
Looking ahead to 2028, the brand will continue daypart and occasion expansion of its menu, in line with recent examples of the Chicken Sandwich and Wings and focus on attracting more profitable digital guests and increasing its digital mix of sales. The brand will accelerate its emphasis on improving restaurant operations through its Easy to Run kitchens. Popeyes expects to grow its U.S. and Canada restaurant base with top restaurant operators from nearly 3,400 in 2023 to more than 4,200 restaurants by 2028.
Firehouse Subs
Looking ahead to 2028, Firehouse Subs is expected to contribute to our broader outlook by rapidly scaling its digital channels to 100 per cent of sales over the next few years, improving speed of service through equipment innovation, and accelerating net restaurant growth in attractive and under-penetrated markets across the U.S. and Canada with a path to ramp its pace of development to 300 net new annual units over the next few years, resulting in 800 new units by 2028.
