By Vince Sgabellone
I’ve written many columns over the years about the number-1 item consumed in Canadian foodservice: brewed coffee. Looking back, I realize I’ve never written a column about the number-two item: French fries.
Accounting for 1.2 billion servings in 2023, Circana’s CREST consumer-behaviour tracking data reports French- fry consumption rose nine per cent last year, compared to traffic gains of six per cent. Included in 13 per cent of all foodservice meals, a ratio that was up slightly from the previous year and a full point higher than 2018, French-fry popularity seems assured. Just as the coffee category has evolved recently through diversification and innovation, a look at potato consumption habits indicates there remains a bright future for this menu category.
Much like the “host” menu item of French fries, we see poutine consumption also grew nine per cent in 2023, and curly/wedge/waffle-cut fries grew 19 per cent. Meanwhile, sweet-potato fries were up 16 per cent. Clearly there is consumer demand for these specialty fries and the menu innovations associated with them. Limited-time offers (LTOs) can be an effective way of promoting these new items and have been a key growth contributor.
Another trend working in favour of potatoes is the morning meal daypart’s popularity and growth momentum. Morning meals now represent 29 per cent of all restaurant visits, up seven per cent in 2023 compared to 2022. The resulting growth in breakfast potatoes — whether hash browns or home fries — amounted to an incremental 25 million servings, or nine per cent year-over-consumption growth in Canada last year.
Amid all this positivity, restaurant potato consumption could face some challenges in the future. To begin, the fastest-growing side dish in 2023 was rice. This is associated with Canadians’ burgeoning appetite for global cuisines from Asia, Africa, the Mediterranean, and Mexico. Similarly, witness the rise in “bowls.” While there is much debate over the definition of this menu item, there is no denying its popularity. Advancing the global-cuisine trend, with a dose of healthfulness thrown in, these preparations typically do not include any potatoes in the bowl or on the side. And finally, take note that French fry incidence is lowest, and has declined, within the older Gen-Z cohort (aged 19 to 27). This is the cohort marketers target to drive their future success, but these consumers may be ordering their meals without a side of fries.
For potato growers, producers, and marketers, it is time to start planning for the future. Potatoes’ versatility as a side dish, main dish, or snack is an opportunity for diversity and a buffer against the shifting tides of consumer behaviour trends. No matter how you slice, dice, shred, or chop it, potatoes will remain a popular menu item in Canada for a long time to come.
This column was excerpted from a presentation I delivered in January at The Manitoba Potato Production Days conference in Brandon, Man. During my two days there, I met many amazing people and learned so much about agriculture in general, and of course, about potato farming. One farmer said it best when I told him what I do. “We are at one end of the supply chain. The farm. And you are at the other end. The consumer.” The entire experience gave me a whole new appreciation for the work this community does every day to put food on our tables. Next time you get a chance, be sure to thank a farmer.
Vince Sgabellone is the director of Client Development and Foodservice Industry analyst at Circana. He can be reached at [email protected]
